December 22, 2023
Publications
>
Article

Southward migration of the zero-degree isotherm latitude over the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Peninsula: Cryospheric, biotic and societal implications

Publicated to: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT. 912 168473- - 2024-02-20 912(), DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168473

Authors:

González-Herrero, S; Navarro, F; Pertierra, LR; Oliva, M; Dadic, R; Peck, L; Lehning, M
[+]

Affiliations

Agencia Estatal Meteorol AEMET, Antarctic Grp, Barcelona, Spain - Author
Antarctic Group - Author
British Antarctic Survey - Author
British Antarctic Survey, UKRI NERC, Cambridge, England - Author
Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne EPFL, Sch Architecture Civil & Environm Engn, Lausanne, Switzerland - Author
Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne - Author
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne , WSL - Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung SLF - Davos - Author
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Author
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile , University of Pretoria - Author
Univ Barcelona, Dept Geog, Barcelona, Spain - Author
Univ Catolica Chile, Millennium Inst Biodivers Antarctic & Subantarct E, Santiago, Chile - Author
Univ Politecn Madrid, Departmento Matemat Aplicada TIC, ETSI Telecomunicac, Madrid, Spain - Author
Univ Pretoria, Plant & Soil Sci Dept, Pretoria, South Africa - Author
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid - Author
Universitat de Barcelona - Author
University of Pretoria - Author
WSL - Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung SLF - Davos - Author
WSL - Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung SLF - Davos , Antarctic Group - Author
WSL Inst Snow & Avalanche Res SLF, Davos, Switzerland - Author
See more

Abstract

The seasonal movement of the zero-degree isotherm across the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Peninsula drives major changes in the physical and biological processes around maritime Antarctica. These include spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation phase, snow accumulation and melt, thawing and freezing of the active layer of the permafrost, glacier mass balance variations, sea ice mass balance and changes in physiological processes of biodiversity. Here, we characterize the historical seasonal southward movement of the monthly near-surface zero-degree isotherm latitude (ZIL), and quantify the velocity of migration in the context of climate change using climate reanalyses and projections. From 1957 to 2020, the ZIL exhibited a significant southward shift of 16.8 km decade−1 around Antarctica and of 23.8 km decade−1 in the Antarctic Peninsula, substantially faster than the global mean velocity of temperature change of 4.2 km decade−1, with only a small fraction being attributed to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). CMIP6 models reproduce the trends observed from 1957 to 2014 and predict a further southward migration around Antarctica of 24 ± 12 km decade−1 and 50 ± 19 km decade−1 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The southward migration of the ZIL is expected to have major impacts on the cryosphere, especially on the precipitation phase, snow accumulation and in peripheral glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula, with more uncertain changes on permafrost, ice sheets and shelves, and sea ice. Longer periods of temperatures above 0 °C threshold will extend active biological periods in terrestrial ecosystems and will reduce the extent of oceanic ice cover, changing phenologies as well as areas of productivity in marine ecosystems, especially those located on the sea ice edge.
[+]

Keywords

active-layerantarctic peninsulabiodiversityclimate changeclimate-changecryosphereglaciersimpactslivingston islandmass-balancesnow accumulationsouthern oceansurface melttrendsAntarctic peninsulaBiodiversityClimate changeCryosphereSea-iceSouthern oceanZero-degree isotherm

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2024 there are still no calculated indicators, but in 2023, it was in position 39/376, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Environmental Sciences. Notably, the journal is positioned above the 90th percentile.

Independientemente del impacto esperado determinado por el canal de difusión, es importante destacar el impacto real observado de la propia aportación.

Según las diferentes agencias de indexación, el número de citas acumuladas por esta publicación hasta la fecha 2026-04-25:

  • Google Scholar: 5
  • WoS: 8
  • Scopus: 11
[+]

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2026-04-25:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 36.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 35 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 95.
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 12 (Altmetric).
  • The number of mentions in news outlets: 11 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
  • Assignment of a Handle/URN as an identifier within the deposit in the Institutional Repository: https://oa.upm.es/86982/

As a result of the publication of the work in the institutional repository, statistical usage data has been obtained that reflects its impact. In terms of dissemination, we can state that, as of

  • Views: 94
  • Downloads: 78
[+]

Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: Antarctic; Chile; South African Republic; Switzerland; United Kingdom; United States of America.

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: First Author (NAVARRO VALERO, FRANCISCO JOSE) .

the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been NAVARRO VALERO, FRANCISCO JOSE.

[+]