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Estimating Dementia Onset: AT(N) Profiles and Predictive Modeling in Mild Cognitive Impairment Patients
Publicated to:Current Alzheimer Research. 20 (11): 778-790 - 2024-02-28 20(11), DOI: 10.2174/0115672050295317240223162312
Authors: Platero, C; Tohka, J; Strange, B
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Abstract
Background Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) usually precedes the symptomatic phase of dementia and constitutes a window of opportunities for preventive therapies.Objectives The objective of this study was to predict the time an MCI patient has left to reach dementia and obtain the most likely natural history in the progression of MCI towards dementia.Methods This study was conducted on 633 MCI patients and 145 subjects with dementia through 4726 visits over 15 years from Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort. A combination of data from AT(N) profiles at baseline and longitudinal predictive modeling was applied. A data-driven approach was proposed for categorical diagnosis prediction and timeline estimation of cognitive decline progression, which combined supervised and unsupervised learning techniques.Results A reduced vector of only neuropsychological measures was selected for training the models. At baseline, this approach had high performance in detecting subjects at high risk of converting from MCI to dementia in the coming years. Furthermore, a Disease Progression Model (DPM) was built and also verified using three metrics. As a result of the DPM focused on the studied population, it was inferred that amyloid pathology (A+) appears about 7 years before dementia, and tau pathology (T+) and neurodegeneration (N+) occur almost simultaneously, between 3 and 4 years before dementia. In addition, MCI-A+ subjects were shown to progress more rapidly to dementia compared to MCI-A- subjects.Conclusion Based on proposed natural histories and cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of AD markers, the results indicated that only a single cerebrospinal fluid sample is necessary during the prodromal phase of AD. Prediction from MCI into dementia and its timeline can be achieved exclusively through neuropsychological measures.
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Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel
The work has been published in the journal Current Alzheimer Research, and although the journal is classified in the quartile Q3 (Agencia WoS (JCR)), its regional focus and specialization in Neurosciences, give it significant recognition in a specific niche of scientific knowledge at an international level.
Impact and social visibility
Leadership analysis of institutional authors
This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: Finland.
There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: First Author (PLATERO DUEÑAS, CARLOS) and Last Author (STRANGE, BRYAN).
the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been PLATERO DUEÑAS, CARLOS.