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Mediero, LuisAuthor

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April 21, 2024
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Urbanization vs. climate drivers: investigating changes in fluvial floods in Poland

Publicated to: STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT. 38 (7): 2841-2857 - 2024-07-01 38(7), DOI: 10.1007/s00477-024-02717-z

Authors:

Venegas-Cordero, N; Mediero, L; Piniewski, M
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Affiliations

Univ Politecn Madrid, Dept Civil Engn Hydraul Energy & Environm, Madrid 28040, Spain - Author
Warsaw Univ Life Sci, Dept Hydrol Meteorol & Water Management, Nowoursynowska 166, PL-02787 Warsaw, Poland - Author

Abstract

Fluvial floods are a severe hazard resulting from the interplay of climatic and anthropogenic factors. The most critical anthropogenic factor is urbanization, which increases land imperviousness. This study uses the paired catchment approach to investigate the effect of urbanization vs. climate drivers on river floods in Poland. Long-term daily river flow data until 2020 was used for four selected urban catchments and their non-urban counterparts, along with extreme precipitation, soil moisture excess, and snowmelt data generated from the process-based Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Changes in impervious areas were assessed using two state-of-the-art Copernicus products, revealing a consistent upward trend in imperviousness across all selected urban catchments. A range of statistical methods were employed to assess changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods and flood drivers, including the Pettitt test, the Mann Kendall (MK) multitemporal test, the Poisson regression test, multi-temporal correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. The MK test results showed a contrasting behaviour between urban (increases) and non-urban (no change) catchments for three of the four analysed catchment pairs. Flood frequency increased significantly in only one urban catchment. Multiple regression analysis revealed that non-urban catchments consistently exhibited stronger relationships between floods and climate drivers than the urban ones, although the results of residual analysis were not statistically significant. In summary, the evidence for the impact of urbanization on floods was found to be moderate. The study highlights the significance of evaluating both climatic and anthropogenic factors when analysing river flood dynamics in Poland.
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Keywords

AttributionConsequenceExtreme precipitationFloodFrequencyHeavy precipitationImpactImperviousnesImperviousnessLand-use changesPeak-over-thresholdRainfallRiskRiver-basinSnowmeltSoil moisture excessTrend analysis

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2024 there are still no calculated indicators, but in 2023, it was in position 9/169, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Statistics & Probability. Notably, the journal is positioned above the 90th percentile.

Independientemente del impacto esperado determinado por el canal de difusión, es importante destacar el impacto real observado de la propia aportación.

Según las diferentes agencias de indexación, el número de citas acumuladas por esta publicación hasta la fecha 2026-04-06:

  • WoS: 4
  • Scopus: 3
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Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2026-04-06:

  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 7 (PlumX).
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Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: Poland.

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Awards linked to the item

This study was supported financially by the National Science Centre (NCN) in Poland under the research project "ATtribution of changes in RIver FLOods in Poland (ATRIFLOP)", grant 2022/45/N/ST10/03551. The authors acknowledge funding from the project PID2019-107027RB-I00 'SAFERDAMS: Assessment of the impact of climate change on hydrological dam safety' of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PID2019-107027RB-I00 / AEI / 10.13039/501100011033). We thank the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB) for providing the river flow data. The comments from two anonymous reviewers helped us to improve the quality of the manuscript.
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