July 21, 2024
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Article

Three Novel Artificial Neural Network Architectures Based on Convolutional Neural Networks for the Spatio-Temporal Processing of Solar Forecasting Data

Publicated to: Applied Sciences-Basel. 14 (13): 5955- - 2024-07-01 14(13), DOI: 10.3390/app14135955

Authors:

Cesar, LB; Manso-Callejo, MA; Cira, CI
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Affiliations

Univ Politecn Madrid, Dept Ingn Topograf & Cartograf, ETSI Topog Geodesia & Cartog, C Mercator 2, Madrid 28031, Spain - Author

Abstract

In this work, three new convolutional neural network models-spatio-temporal convolutional neural network versions 1 and 2 (ST_CNN_v1 and ST_CNN_v2), and the spatio-temporal dilated convolutional neural network (ST_Dilated_CNN)-are proposed for solar forecasting and processing global horizontal irradiance (GHI) data enriched with meteorological and astronomical variables. A comparative analysis of the proposed models with two traditional benchmark models shows that the proposed ST_Dilated_CNN model outperforms the rest in capturing long-range dependencies, achieving a mean absolute error of 31.12 W/m2, a mean squared error of 54.07 W/m2, and a forecast skill of 37.21%. The statistical analysis carried out on the test set suggested highly significant differences in performance (p-values lower than 0.001 for all metrics in all the considered scenarios), with the model with the lowest variability in performance being ST_CNN_v2. The statistical tests applied confirmed the robustness and reliability of the proposed models under different conditions. In addition, this work highlights the significant influence of astronomical variables on prediction performance. The study also highlights the intricate relationship between the proposed models and meteorological and astronomical input characteristics, providing important insights into the field of solar prediction and reaffirming the need for further research into variability factors that affect the performance of models.
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Keywords

Deep learninDeep learningDilated cnnSolar forecastSpatio-temporal

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Applied Sciences-Basel due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2024 there are still no calculated indicators, but in 2023, it was in position 50/179, thus managing to position itself as a Q2 (Segundo Cuartil), in the category Engineering, Multidisciplinary. Notably, the journal is positioned en el Cuartil Q2 para la agencia Scopus (SJR) en la categoría Engineering (Miscellaneous).

Independientemente del impacto esperado determinado por el canal de difusión, es importante destacar el impacto real observado de la propia aportación.

Según las diferentes agencias de indexación, el número de citas acumuladas por esta publicación hasta la fecha 2026-04-26:

  • Google Scholar: 1
  • WoS: 2
  • Scopus: 2
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Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2026-04-26:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 6.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 6 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 1.
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 1 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
  • Assignment of a Handle/URN as an identifier within the deposit in the Institutional Repository: https://oa.upm.es/89672/

As a result of the publication of the work in the institutional repository, statistical usage data has been obtained that reflects its impact. In terms of dissemination, we can state that, as of

  • Views: 101
  • Downloads: 69
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Leadership analysis of institutional authors

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: First Author (BENAVIDES CESAR, LLINET) and Last Author (CIRA, CALIMANUT-IONUT).

the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been MANSO CALLEJO, MIGUEL ANGEL.

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