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De La Paz Martín, DavidAuthorLumbreras JAuthorBorge RAuthor

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April 6, 2016
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Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

Publicated to: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH. 128 ( ): 15-26 - 2014-01-01 128( ), DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2013.10.009

Authors:

Boldo, E; Linares, C; Aragonés, N; Lumbreras, J; Borge, R; de la Paz, D; Pérez-Gómez, B; Fernández-Navarro, P; García-Pérez, J; Pollán, M; Ramis, R; Moreno, T; Karanasiou, A; López-Abente, G
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Affiliations

Cancer and Environmental Epidemiology Unit, National Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Avda. Monforte de Lemos, 5, Madrid, Spain - Author
Carlos III Inst Health, Natl Ctr Epidemiol, Canc & Environm Epidemiol Unit, Madrid 28029, Spain - Author
CIBER en Epidemiologia y Salud Publica (CIBERESP), Spain - Author
Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Madrid (UPM), José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, Madrid, Spain - Author
Inst Environm Assessment & Water Res IDAEA CSIC, Barcelona 08034, Spain - Author
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA-CSIC), C/Jordi Girona, 18-26, Barcelona, Spain - Author
Tech Univ Madrid UPM, Dept Chem & Environm Engn, Madrid 28006, Spain - Author
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Abstract

In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health.We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007.To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16×16km(2). In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures.Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1µg/m(3) by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%.Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline in fine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.© 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Keywords

air quality modelsair quality policiesfine particlesischemic cardiac eventsAir monitoringAir pollutionAir qualityAir quality controlAir quality modelsAir quality policiesArticleAtmospheric modelingAtmospheric pollutionCardiovascular diseaseCardiovascular mortalityCohortCombustionDiseaseEnvironmental exposureEnvironmental healthEnvironmental planningEpidemiologic evidenceEuropean citiesFine particlesGeographic distributionHealth impactHealth impact assessmentHeart muscle ischemiaHumanHumansIschemic cardiac eventsIschemic heart diseaseLegal aspectLong term exposureLong-term exposureLung cancerLung neoplasmsLung tumorLung-cancerMortalityMyocardial ischemiaParticulate matterPollutionPollution controlPollution exposurePollution monitoringPollution policyPopulation exposurePopulation growthPriority journalPublic healthPublic-healthSpainSpatiotemporal analysis

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2014, it was in position 15/165, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Public, Environmental & Occupational Health.

From a relative perspective, and based on the normalized impact indicator calculated from World Citations provided by WoS (ESI, Clarivate), it yields a value for the citation normalization relative to the expected citation rate of: 1.82. This indicates that, compared to works in the same discipline and in the same year of publication, it ranks as a work cited above average. (source consulted: ESI Nov 13, 2025)

This information is reinforced by other indicators of the same type, which, although dynamic over time and dependent on the set of average global citations at the time of their calculation, consistently position the work at some point among the top 50% most cited in its field:

  • Weighted Average of Normalized Impact by the Scopus agency: 1.53 (source consulted: FECYT Mar 2025)

Specifically, and according to different indexing agencies, this work has accumulated citations as of 2026-04-26, the following number of citations:

  • WoS: 53
  • Scopus: 62
  • Europe PMC: 18
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Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2026-04-26:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 175.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 175 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 6.
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 5 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
  • Assignment of a Handle/URN as an identifier within the deposit in the Institutional Repository: https://oa.upm.es/36154/

As a result of the publication of the work in the institutional repository, statistical usage data has been obtained that reflects its impact. In terms of dissemination, we can state that, as of

  • Views: 452
  • Downloads: 722
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