July 1, 2019
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Article

Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. Lopez (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future

Publicated to: PLoS One. 14 (6): e0218160- - 2019-06-13 14(6), DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0218160

Authors:

de Luis, Miguel; Alvarez-Jimenez, Julio; Martinez Labarga, Juan Manuel; Bartolome, Carmen
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Affiliations

Univ Alcalao, Dept Ciencias Vida, Fac Biol Ambientales & Quim C, Alcala De Henares - Author
Univ Politecn Madrid, Dept Sistemas & Recursos Nat, ETSI Montes Forestal & Medio Nat - Author

Abstract

Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. Lopez under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bio-climatic niche and the endemic nature of this plant could make this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method to study the potential distribution of this taxon under four different scenarios of climate change, pin-pointing relevant changes in the potential distribution of this plant and enabling possible future areas of refuge to be assessed. Such scenarios are defined according to four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [, which represent different trends in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a result, we predict notable changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi, and the overlap between soil and bioclimatic suitability would be affected. We also used a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to model the bioclimatic niche of this species, comparing it with that of its parental taxa. The evolution of bioclimatic suitability was assessed at the current locations of G. bermejoi and as this plant is a strict gypsophile, we generated suitability maps for sites with gypsum soils. Ultimately, this study identifies relevant changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi under specific climatic scenarios, observing remarkable differences in the outcomes of the different climate change scenarios. Interestingly, in some scenarios the bioclimatic suitability of G. bermejoi will be enhanced at many locations and even in the worst scenario some possible refuge areas were identified. G. bermejoi behaves more like a hardy survivor than as early victim.
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Keywords

CaryophyllaceaeClimate changeEcologyExplanationGypsumMaxentPatternsPlasticityPredictionPrincipal component analysisResponsesSoilSpecies distribution modelsVegetation

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

Independientemente del impacto esperado determinado por el canal de difusión, es importante destacar el impacto real observado de la propia aportación.

Según las diferentes agencias de indexación, el número de citas acumuladas por esta publicación hasta la fecha 2026-04-27:

  • WoS: 6
  • Scopus: 8
  • Europe PMC: 1
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Impact and social visibility

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
  • Assignment of a Handle/URN as an identifier within the deposit in the Institutional Repository: https://oa.upm.es/86446/

As a result of the publication of the work in the institutional repository, statistical usage data has been obtained that reflects its impact. In terms of dissemination, we can state that, as of

  • Views: 123
  • Downloads: 46
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Awards linked to the item

We thank Dr Blas M. Benito, Dr Marcelino de la Cruz and the reviewers for their suggestions regarding our research and the improvement of this manuscript. We also thank Natura 2000 mapping project, supported by Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-la Mancha (Spain).
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