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Assessing and minimizing collisions in satellite mega-constellations

Publicated to:Advances In Space Research. 67 (11): 3755-3774 - 2021-06-01 67(11), DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2021.01.010

Authors: Reiland N; Rosengren AJ; Malhotra R; Bombardelli C

Affiliations

Tech Univ Madrid, Space Dynam Grp, Madrid, Spain - Author
THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA - Author
Univ Arizona, Aerosp & Mech Engn, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA - Author
Univ Arizona, Lunar & Planetary Lab, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA - Author
Univ Calif San Diego, Mech & Aerosp Engn, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA - Author
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid - Author
University of California, San Diego - Author
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Abstract

© 2021 We aim to provide satellite operators and researchers with an efficient means for evaluating and mitigating collision risk during the design process of mega-constellations. We first introduce a novel algorithm for conjunction prediction that relies on large-scale numerical simulations and uses a sequence of filters to greatly reduce its computational expense. We then use this brute-force algorithm to establish baselines of endogenous (intra-constellation), or self-induced, conjunction events for the FCC-reported designs of the OneWeb LEO and SpaceX Starlink mega-constellations. We demonstrate how these deterministic results can be used to validate more computationally efficient, stochastic techniques for close-encounter prediction by adopting a new probabilistic approach from Solar-System dynamics as a simple test case. Finally, we show how our methodology can be applied during the design phase of large constellations by investigating Minimum Space Occupancy (MiSO) orbits, a generalization of classical frozen orbits that holistically account for the perturbed-Keplerian dynamics of the Earth-satellite-Moon-Sun system. The results indicate that the adoption of MiSO orbital configurations of the proposed mega-constellations can significantly reduce the risk of endogenous collisions with nearly indistinguishable adjustments to the nominal orbital elements of the constellation satellites.

Keywords

ChaosDynamical evolution and stabilityElementsEnvironmentFrozen orbitsMega-constellationsMotionRiskSatellite conjunctionSpaceSpace debrisSustainability

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Advances In Space Research due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2021, it was in position 10/34, thus managing to position itself as a Q2 (Segundo Cuartil), in the category Engineering, Aerospace. Notably, the journal is positioned en el Cuartil Q2 para la agencia Scopus (SJR) en la categoría Earth and Planetary Sciences (Miscellaneous).

From a relative perspective, and based on the normalized impact indicator calculated from World Citations from Scopus Elsevier, it yields a value for the Field-Weighted Citation Impact from the Scopus agency: 2.31, which indicates that, compared to works in the same discipline and in the same year of publication, it ranks as a work cited above average. (source consulted: ESI Nov 14, 2024)

This information is reinforced by other indicators of the same type, which, although dynamic over time and dependent on the set of average global citations at the time of their calculation, consistently position the work at some point among the top 50% most cited in its field:

  • Field Citation Ratio (FCR) from Dimensions: 8.7 (source consulted: Dimensions Jun 2025)

Specifically, and according to different indexing agencies, this work has accumulated citations as of 2025-06-10, the following number of citations:

  • WoS: 8
  • Scopus: 34
  • Google Scholar: 8
  • OpenCitations: 24

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2025-06-10:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 61.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 61 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 12.33.
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 5 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.

Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: United States of America.

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: Last Author (BOMBARDELLI, CLAUDIO).