April 12, 2021
Publications
>
Article
No

Modeling historical subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal in the Alto Guadalentin aquifer-system (Spain)

Publicated to: ENGINEERING GEOLOGY. 283 105998- - 2021-03-20 283(), DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2021.105998

Authors:

Fernandez-Merodo, J A; Ezquerro, P; Manzanal, D; Bejar-Pizarro, M; Mateos, R M; Guardiola-Albert, C; Garcia-Davalillo, J C; Lopez-Vinielles, J; Sarro, R; Bru, G; Mulas, J; Aragon, R; Reyes-Carmona, C; Mira, P; Pastor, M; Herrera, G
[+]

Affiliations

‎ Ctr Estudios & Experimentac Obras Publ CEDEX, Calle Alfonso XII,3, Madrid 28014, Spain - Author
‎ EuroGeoSurveys Earth Observat & Geohazards Expert, Rue Joseph II 36-38, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium - Author
‎ Geol Survey Spain IGME, Geohazards InSAR Lab, Geosci Res Dept, Alenza 1, Madrid 28003, Spain - Author
‎ Geol Survey Spain IGME, Geosci Res Dept, Environm Geol & Geomath, Alenza 1, Madrid 28003, Spain - Author
‎ Geol Survey Spain IGME, Modeling Grp InSARlab, Geosci Res Dept, Alenza 1, Madrid 28003, Spain - Author
‎ HEMAV SL, Carrer Esteve Terrades 1, Barcelona 08860, Spain - Author
‎ Inst Geociencias UCM CSIC, Calle Dr Severo Ochoa 7, Madrid 28040, Spain - Author
‎ Univ Granada, Dept Geodynam, Campus Univ Fuentenueva, Granada 18071, Spain - Author
‎ Univ Politecn Madrid, ETSI Caminos Canales & Puertos, C Prof Aranguren S-N, Madrid 28040, Spain - Author
‎ Univ Politecn Madrid, ETSI Minas & Energia, C Rios Rosas 21, Madrid 28003, Spain - Author
See more

Abstract

The Alto Guadalentin Basin (Spain) is widely recognized as an area of major anthropogenic land subsidence due to groundwater extraction. This paper presents a numerical methodology to quantify the severe subsidence of this basin over history. First, a 3D groundwater model is proposed to reproduce groundwater evolution in the regional Alto Guadalentin aquifer system since 1960, leading to an average piezometric level drop of 150 m. Secondly, a generalized plasticity state parameter-based model is calibrated to reproduce the mechanical behavior, observed in oedometer laboratory tests, of compressible materials extracted from a 300-m drilled borehole located in the area of maximum subsidence. The strength of this constitutive model is that a single set of material parameters can be used to reproduce the mechanical behavior of material located at different depths, hence having different confining pressures and void ratio states. Afterwards, subsidence is assessed through a partially saturated 1D vertical finite element model, solving Biot equations that reproduce the slow vertical drainage and vertical consolidation processes, taking into account the calibrated constitutive model and prescribing the previously computed groundwater evolution of the aquifer. Finally, the subsidence model is adjusted with different displacement data available from 1992: datasets acquired by ERS, ENVISAT, Cosmo-SkyMed satellites and the global positioning system GNSS. The proposed calibrated subsidence model reproduces the 3.1 m subsidence monitored in the period 1992-2018, and quantifies historical subsidence (since 1960) in the Alto Guadalentin Basin area at around 5.8 m. Moreover, the model predicts subsidence of up to 7.3 m by 2100 for an assumed constant hydraulic head from 2012 onward.
[+]

Keywords

Alto guadalentinBehaviorCompactionGehomadridGeneralized plasticityGeneralized plasticity modelGroundwater withdrawalIndonesiaLand subsidenceMexico-cityModflowMurciaSe spainSoilSubsidenceValley

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal ENGINEERING GEOLOGY due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2021, it was in position 1/41, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Engineering, Geological. Notably, the journal is positioned above the 90th percentile.

From a relative perspective, and based on the normalized impact indicator calculated from World Citations provided by WoS (ESI, Clarivate), it yields a value for the citation normalization relative to the expected citation rate of: 1.5. This indicates that, compared to works in the same discipline and in the same year of publication, it ranks as a work cited above average. (source consulted: ESI Nov 13, 2025)

This information is reinforced by other indicators of the same type, which, although dynamic over time and dependent on the set of average global citations at the time of their calculation, consistently position the work at some point among the top 50% most cited in its field:

  • Weighted Average of Normalized Impact by the Scopus agency: 1.85 (source consulted: FECYT Mar 2025)

Specifically, and according to different indexing agencies, this work has accumulated citations as of 2026-04-24, the following number of citations:

  • WoS: 20
  • Scopus: 20
[+]

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2026-04-24:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 38.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 38 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 6.
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 9 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • Assignment of a Handle/URN as an identifier within the deposit in the Institutional Repository: https://oa.upm.es/85877/

As a result of the publication of the work in the institutional repository, statistical usage data has been obtained that reflects its impact. In terms of dissemination, we can state that, as of

  • Views: 180
  • Downloads: 1
[+]

Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: Belgium.

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: First Author (FERNANDEZ MERODO, JOSE ANTONIO) .

the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been Ezquerro, P.

[+]

Awards linked to the item

This work was developed in the framework of AQUARISK Project: Analysis of Geological-Geotechnical Risks due to Groundwater Exploitation Using Space and Terrestrial Techniques. Application on urban structures and infrastructures was funded by Spanish Research Program from Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ESP2013-47780-C2-2-R). The second author expresses gratitude for Ph.D. Student Contract BES-2014-069076. Further support comes from the e-Shape project, with funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement 820852, and RESERVOIR Project, part of the PRIMA Programme Horizon 2020 European Union's programme for research and innovation under grant agreement number 1924.
[+]