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This research has been supported by the project 'SAFERDAMS: Assessment of the impact of climate change on hydrological dam safety' (PID2019-107027RB-I00) and the grant for pre-doctoral contracts to train PhD students PRE2020-091861 both funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. This research was also funded by the EIT Climate-KIC project SaferPLACES -Improved assessment of pluvial, fluvial and coastal flood hazards and risks in European cities as a mean to build safer and resilient communities, Task ID: EIT_2.2.37_200246_P401_1B., The authors would like to acknowledge the Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) for supplying the 1-m DEM; the SAIH real-time system of the River Ebro Basin Authority for supplying the streamflow data; the Regional Government of Navarre for supplying the estimated flood extent in the 9 June 2013 event, and the Consorcio de Compensacion de Seguros for supplying a database of direct flood losses in Pamplona.

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Assessing the impact of climate change on fluvial flood losses in urban areas. The case study of Pamplona (Spain)

Publicado en:Proceedings Of The 39th Iahr World Congress. 7000-7008 - 2022-01-01 (), DOI: 10.3850/IAHR-39WC2521716X2022864

Autores: Soriano, E; Shröter, K; Ullrich, S; Santillan, D; Cueto-Felgueroso, L; Lompi, M; Mediero, L

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Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of flooding in the future. In addition, in recent years there has been an increase in city extents and populations densities. Such effects will potentially increase flood losses in urban areas. A distributed hydrological model, a two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model and a flood loss model have been used in this study. The methodology offered in this study is applied to the metropolitan area of Pamplona (Spain). The effect of climate change on flood hydrographs has been considered by using peak flow delta changes obtained from 12 climate models, two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), three periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100), and seven return periods. The delta changes in precipitation quantiles in the Arga river catchment have been transformed into peak flow delta changes by using the RIBS model. In addition, 33 %, 50 %, and 67 % percentiles of flood quantile delta changes are selected to consider the uncertainty in results. Water depth values expected in future flood events have been obtained by using the 2D IBER hydrodynamic model. The Safer_DAMAGE algorithm assesses flood losses in urban areas at the building scale by using water depths at the buildings. The results show that flood losses are expected to be smaller for low return periods and greater for high return periods. The methodology proposed in this study can be useful for assessing the impact of climate change on flood losses in the future in urban areas.

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