In recent years, several attempts have been made by the Chinese industry to develop and certify large transport aircraft, such as the regional jet ARJ21 certified by the CAAC after years of delays, the C919 in the single-aisle segment whose certification has been postponed for years, or the future development of a wide-body model C929. The success of all these attempts will effectively affect Airbus/Boeing leadership in the industry and is going to be one of the major issues in the industry in the future. China’s ability to certify and produce commercial aircraft efficiently, economically, and on time to take advantage of the country’s anticipated development could greatly influence the international scenario and have a major impact on the current balance of the aerospace industry. Keys in that future will be the capacity of the Chinese industry to certify its current aircraft developments, produce on a large scale, gain the confidence of the airlines, and acquire a significant share of the market. All these aspects are raised and developed in a first case study that aims to shedlight on how possible scenarios can influence the development of the European air transport industry and how Europe can react in each case with the best political, regulatory, research, educational, and industrial strategies. The objective of this study is to analyze the potential of the emerging commercial aviation industry and its possibility of affecting, in the long and medium term, the actual duopoly run by the European Consortium Airbus Group and the American company Boeing Corporation. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.