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Soriano, EnriqueAuthorMediero, LuisCorresponding Author

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July 31, 2025
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Article

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Dam Hydrological Safety by Using a Stochastic Rainfall Generator

Publicated to: Hydrology. 12 (6): 153- - 2025-06-17 12(6), DOI: 10.3390/hydrology12060153

Authors:

Soriano, E; Mediero, L; Petroselli, A; De Luca, DL; Apollonio, C; Grimaldi, S
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Affiliations

Sapienza Univ Rome, Dept Civil Bldg & Environm Engn, I-00185 Rome, Italy - Author
Tuscia Univ, Dept Agr & Forest Sci DAFNE, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy - Author
Tuscia Univ, Dept Innovat Biol Agrofood & Forest Syst DIBAF, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy - Author
Univ Politecn Madrid, Dept Civil Engn Hydraul Energy & Environm, Madrid 28040, Spain - Author
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Abstract

Dam breaks can lead to important economic and human losses. Design floods, which are useful to assess possible dam breaks, are usually estimated through statistical analysis of rainfall and streamflow observed data. However, such available samples are commonly limited and, consequently, high uncertainties are associated with the design flood estimates. In addition, climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall and flood events in the future. Therefore, a methodology based on a stochastic rainfall generator is proposed to assess hydrological dam safety by considering climate change. We selected the Eugui Dam on the Arga river in the north of Spain as a case study that has a spillway operated by gates with a maximum capacity of 270 m3/s. The stochastic rainfall generator STORAGE is used to simulate long time series of 15-min precipitation in both current and future climate conditions. Precipitation projections of 12 climate modeling chains, related to the usual three 30-year periods (2011-2024; 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and two emission scenarios of AR5 (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), are used to consider climate change in the STORAGE model. The simulated precipitation time series are transformed into runoff time series by using the continuous COSMO4SUB hydrological model, supplying continuous 15-min runoff time series as output. Annual maximum flood hydrographs are selected and considered as inflows to the Eugui Reservoir. The Volume Evaluation Method is applied to simulate the operation of the Eugui Dam spillway gates, obtaining maximum water levels in the reservoir and outflow hydrographs. The results show that the peak outflows at the Eugui Dam will be lower in the future. Therefore, maximum reservoir water levels will not increase in the future. The methodology proposed could allow practitioners and dam managers to check the hydrological dam safety requirements, accounting for climate change.
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Keywords

Climate changeDurationEuropExtremesFailureFloodFloodsFutureHydrological dam safetyModelPredictionsProjectionsRainfall-runoff modelRiskStochastic rainfall generatoStochastic rainfall generator

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Hydrology due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency Scopus (SJR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2025, it was in position , thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Earth-Surface Processes.

Independientemente del impacto esperado determinado por el canal de difusión, es importante destacar el impacto real observado de la propia aportación.

Según las diferentes agencias de indexación, el número de citas acumuladas por esta publicación hasta la fecha 2026-04-27:

  • WoS: 1
  • Scopus: 1
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Impact and social visibility

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
  • Assignment of a Handle/URN as an identifier within the deposit in the Institutional Repository: https://oa.upm.es/95273/

As a result of the publication of the work in the institutional repository, statistical usage data has been obtained that reflects its impact. In terms of dissemination, we can state that, as of

  • Views: 10
  • Downloads: 2
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Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: Italy.

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: First Author (SORIANO MARTÍN, ENRIQUE) .

the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been MEDIERO ORDUÑA, LUIS JESUS.

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Awards linked to the item

This research was funded by the project 'SAFERDAMS: Assessment of the impact of climate change on hydrological dam safety' (PID2019-107027RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) and by the grant for pre-doctoral contracts to train PhD students PRE2020-091861, both funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. This research was also funded by the "Progetto ECS 0000024 Rome Technopole": CUP B83C22002820006, PNRR Missione 4 Componente 2 Investimento 1.5, finanziato dall'Unione europea-NextGenerationEU. The international collaboration with the Tuscia University for the realization of this research has been supported by the 'Programa Propio UPM 2021' funded by the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid with the collaboration of Santander bank.
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