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This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Contract No. PID2021-122711NB-C21).

Analysis of institutional authors

Atienza-Barthelemy, JuliaAuthorLosada, Juan CCorresponding AuthorBenito, Rosa MAuthor

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April 12, 2025
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Modeling Information Diffusion on Social Media: The Role of the Saturation Effect

Publicated to:Mathematics. 13 (6): 963- - 2025-03-14 13(6), DOI: 10.3390/math13060963

Authors: Atienza-Barthelemy, Julia; Losada, Juan C; Benito, Rosa M

Affiliations

Univ Politecn Madrid, Grp Sistemas Complejos, Escuela Tecn Super Ingn Agron Alimentaria & Biosi, Ave Puerta Hierro 2, Madrid 28040, Spain - Author

Abstract

In an era where social media shapes public opinion, understanding information spreading is key to grasping its broader impact. This paper explores the intricacies of information diffusion on Twitter, emphasizing the significant influence of content saturation on user engagement and retweet behaviors. We introduce a diffusion model that quantifies the likelihood of retweeting relative to the number of accounts a user follows. Our findings reveal a significant negative correlation where users following many accounts are less likely to retweet, suggesting a saturation effect in which exposure to information overload reduces engagement. We validate our model through simulations, demonstrating its ability to replicate real-world retweet network characteristics, including diffusion size and structural properties. Additionally, we explore this saturation effect on the temporal behavior of retweets, revealing that retweet intervals follow a stretched exponential distribution, which better captures the gradual decline in engagement over time. Our results underscore the competitive nature of information diffusion in social networks, where tweets have short lifespans and are quickly replaced by new information. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of content propagation mechanisms, offering a model with broad applicability across contexts, and highlights the importance of information overload in structural and temporal social media dynamics.

Keywords

Diffusion modeInformation diffusionSaturationSocial mediaTwitter

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Mathematics due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2025, it was in position 29/483, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Mathematics. Notably, the journal is positioned above the 90th percentile.

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2025-07-27:

  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 3 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

    It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

    • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.

    Leadership analysis of institutional authors

    There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: First Author (MARTINEZ-ATIENZA BARTHELEMY, JULIA) and Last Author (BENITO ZAFRILLA, ROSA MARIA).

    the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been LOSADA GONZALEZ, JUAN CARLOS.